Zheng Yongnian (郑永年), one of China’s best-known public intellectuals, was among the very few voices in our Iran briefing to suggest that the US–Israeli strikes should prompt a more assertive Chinese foreign policy. In this interview with Greater Bay Area Review, he develops that line with greater theoretical precision.
He is not the only scholar calling for a recalibration of China’s foreign policy. Last month, we published Jin Canrong’s (金灿荣) argument that China will struggle to win true friends if it cannot offer support beyond economic engagement. We also observed similar calls in both our January and February digests.
These arguments remain heavily qualified, light on substance and notable precisely because they are unusual, but they do appear to be part of a nascent trend.
In the interview below, Zheng defends China’s non-alignment strategy, crediting it with helping to prevent both a new world war and a new Cold War. But he argues that the related doctrine of non-interference has not kept pace with the scale of China’s overseas interests.
He puts forward one of the more developed cases for recalibration that we have seen, providing both a name—“Interventionism 2.0”—and a set of conditions for more active intervention: namely, when host countries infringe on China’s overseas interests, when third countries threaten them, or when overseas factors profoundly affect China’s domestic interests.
— Jacob Mardell
Key Points
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer a regional conflict. It is reshaping global energy markets, supply chains and geopolitical alignments in ways that no major economy can insulate itself from.
A 1970s-style oil crisis is unlikely, but short-term shocks—especially for economies with limited supplies—will be severe.
Condemning Iran’s “weaponisation” [武器化] of the Strait while ignoring Western weaponisation of semiconductors, supply chains and trade corridors applies a double standard that fails to withstand scrutiny.
Iran’s most viable course is not a total shutdown of Hormuz, but a calibrated strategy of selective, step-by-step closure, tightening pressure on adversaries while avoiding the self-inflicted costs of severing its own export lifeline.
Diplomatically, Iran may seek to play on tensions among the US, Europe and Japan—a modern echo of Li Hongzhang’s late-Qing strategy of using great-power rivalries to preserve room for manoeuvre under pressure.
Face-Off: The U.S. vs China is a podcast about the turbulent relationship between the world’s two superpowers, the two men in charge, and the vital issues that affect us all. The show is hosted by Pulitzer-Prize winning journalist Jane Perlez, the former New York Times Beijing bureau chief. Listen here.
Russia’s consideration of cutting gas supplies to Europe is an act of opportunistic solidarity with Iran, but risks backfiring by pushing Europe toward US energy dependence or direct military involvement against Iran.
Today’s world reflects a Hobbesian state of nature in which the strong prey on the weak [弱肉强食] and historical experience suggests that the emergence of a new order will take decades.
Chinese traditional non-interference should be updated to “Interventionism 2.0” [干预主义2.0版]: active intervention [积极干预] is warranted when host countries infringe on China’s overseas interests, third countries threaten them, or overseas factors profoundly affect China’s domestic interests.
North-South antagonism stems from the West’s practice of “ladder-pulling” [抽梯子] after having reached development itself. China’s Belt and Road offers a countervailing model of open-source [开源式现代化], shared modernisation [共同现代化].
China should maintain strategic resolve [战略定力] and great-power responsibility to avoid being drawn into the logic of war, while actively pursuing its legitimate overseas interests through multilateral institutions.
The Author
Name: Zheng Yongnian (郑永年)
Year of birth: 1962 (age: 63/64)
Position: Founding Dean and X.Q. Deng Presidential Chair Professor, School of Public Policy, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), Shenzhen; Founding Director, Institute for International Affairs, Qianhai (IIA), CUHK, Shenzhen
Formerly: Director, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore (2008–2019); Founding Research Director, China Policy Institute, University of Nottingham (2005–2008); Researcher, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore (1996–2005)
Research focus: International relations; Chinese politics and society; Nationalism
Education: BA (International Relations), Peking University (1985); MA (Political Theory), Peking University (1988); MA (Political Science), Princeton University (1992); PhD (Political Science), Princeton University (1995)
Experience Abroad: Postdoctoral Fellow, Harvard University (1995–1997); University of Nottingham (2005–2008); National University of Singapore (1997–2019)
DIALOGUE WITH ZHENG YONGNIAN: AS THE LAW OF THE JUNGLE PREVAILS, CHINA URGENTLY NEEDS A “NON-INTERVENTIONISM 2.0”
Zheng Yongnian (郑永年)
Published by Greater Bay Area Review, 9 March 2026
Translated by Cherry Yu
(Illustration by ChatGPT)
