Yan Xuetong on the World to 2035: Hegemony and Its Challengers
A Review of Yan Xuetong's book of forecasts, Inflection of History (December 2025)
The World To 2035: Executive Summary
US–China bipolarity will become firmly entrenched. The US will maintain an overall lead, dominating cyberspace, services and international influence, whilst China will dominate the physical economy, manufacturing and military scale.
Middle powers, including the EU and India, will reject ideological camps in favour of pragmatic, “issue-based alignment” [问题性结盟], navigating between the two superpower ecosystems.
Fuelled by populism, trade protectionism and the normalisation of “might makes right”, the current “counter-globalisation order” [逆全球化秩序] will reach its peak during the second Trump administration.
By 2035, prolonged political fragmentation and widespread popular dissatisfaction with almost two decades of counter-globalisation will generate global demand for a new international order grounded in basic moral principles.
AI-driven excess production and entrenched protectionism will fracture global markets, pushing states towards “club-style” coordina…