Why China's Rise Might Not Be Peaceful — by Prof. Jin Canrong (Part 2)
"History shows that the establishment of new institutions and norms is almost always accompanied by violent measures." - Jin Canrong
This is the second instalment in a series of hawkish commentaries on China’s foreign policy by the popular international relations scholar Jin Canrong. Readers may also refer to our first instalment, which dwells on what Jin perceives critically as the pacifist tendencies of China’s elite. It is accompanied by a prefatory note from Prof. William A. Callahan. — James
Key Points
If China is to establish new global norms and institutions, it is reasonably likely that violence will be necessary—history shows this nearly always to be the case.
From a diplomatic perspective, Beijing’s choice of the term “peaceful development” is pragmatic, as phrases like “peaceful rise” tend to arouse apprehension among other states.
However, an exclusive emphasis on peace is inconsistent with the realities of what may be required for China’s rise. The term should therefore be avoided in academic analysis.
Though peace is preferable to war, denying the possibility of conflict is self-deceptive, muddling serious…