Huang Qifan on China’s Trade Surplus Problem

"From an economic perspective, there are several ways to reduce an excessively large export surplus, the first of which is to allow moderate appreciation of the yuan."

Relatively few retired officials maintain an active public presence in policy debates, and those who do typically come from specialist financial and economic institutions such as the PBoC or central policy-research committees. Huang Qifan is an exception to this, having risen to ministerial-level rank as Mayor of Chongqing, before stepping down in 2016 and being appointed as vice chairman of the Financial and Economic Affairs Committee of the 12th NPC.

Since then, Huang has been able to draw on his credibility as an able economic administrator in Chongqing to maintain an active presence across issues such as rural economic reform, the property crisis, and economic rebalancing in favour of promoting consumption. In the following speech, delivered on 19 May at the annual Tsinghua PBCSF Forum, Huang addresses China’s US$1.2 trillion goods surplus in strikingly direct terms. Several of his observations and recommendations stand out.

First, he is unequivocal in his agreement with the analys…