A Tale of Two Ecosystems: Why China Has Not Yet Surpassed the US in Original Innovation

"China risks repeating the experience of Japan or the Soviet Union—advancing to a certain stage only to stall, with any temporary lead fading as quickly as it appeared." — Wang Mingyuan

Today’s edition opens with an introduction from Rogier Creemers, an Assistant Professor in the Law and Governance of China at Leiden University. His research focuses on China’s digital technology policies and on the country’s growing role in global digital affairs. He is also a co-founder of DigiChina, a joint initiative with Stanford University and New America. Very grateful to him for his contribution to this newsletter. — Thomas

US-China technology rivalry is often viewed through the metaphor of a race. This can be attractive: it is a simple narrative within which a winner prevails at the end. Take the space race for example: the goal, as John F. Kennedy put it, was to put someone on the moon and return them safely to earth by the end of 1969.

In the current moment, however, a series of follow-up questions arises immediately. In an AI race with China, for instance, where is the finishing line? What is the prize? How do we know what “winning” means, and how do we get there? Unsurprisi…